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Cardano

ADA
$0.19991424h +4.90% · 7d +18.74% · 30d +19.59%

Last scan 59m ago

55Confidence-1.8

Slightly bullish (55% confidence)

Why this score

Cardano's Confidence Score slipped from 56.6 to 54.8 out of 100 because recent buying has pushed its RSI to an overbought 76.6, suggesting the short-term upward trend may be stretched. Although ADA is currently trading 19.4% above its 50-day moving average with strong derivatives activity at 85, its broader rating is burdened by a low tokenomics sub-score of 36, an 84% drawdown from its 5-year high, and legislative delays surrounding the U.S. crypto clarity bill. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether the overbought RSI triggers a short-term pull-back or if ADA can build enough momentum to reclaim its long-term 200-day moving average.

Bullish
  • MACD above signalHistogram 0.00 — short-term trend is up.
  • Above 50-day averagePrice is 19.4% above the 50-day moving average.
Bearish
  • Overbought RSIRSI(14) at 76.6 — buying may be stretched.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 84% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum2717%63
Risk (inverted)1304%55
Network usage1630%46
Development870%50
News sentiment1630%53
Social sentiment652%est42
Derivatives positioning652%est85
Tokenomics543%36

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

59m ago

Cardano’s overall confidence score dropped slightly from 56.6 to 54.8, driven by a 5.0-point decline in derivatives positioning from 90 to 85 despite a 5.7-point increase in development from 44 to 50. This shift matters because it signals a minor cool-down in speculative derivatives market activity even as underlying network development continues to strengthen. No new anomaly flags were detected during this scan. Meanwhile, broader legislative sentiment remains paused following news that the US Senate delayed its vote on the crypto Clarity Act until after the August recess.

  • Development up 5.7 points (44 → 50)
  • Derivatives positioning down 5.0 points (90 → 85)

AI confidence meter

Neutral50%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
100%
Conflicting signals
2
Missing data
None
  • 8 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 2 signals contradict the overall read
  • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Cardano demonstrates strong short-term momentum, highlighted by a high derivatives sub-score of 85 and a momentum sub-score of 63. Its short-term trend is upward as the MACD sits above its signal line and the price trades 19.4% above its 50-day moving average.

Bear case

Caution is warranted as the asset remains in a deep drawdown, trading 84% below its 5-year high with its long-term trend structure broken below the 200-day moving average. Additionally, an RSI(14) of 76.6 suggests buying is overextended, further burdened by weak sub-scores in tokenomics (36), social (42), and network (46).

Balanced read: With a neutral confidence score of 54.8/100, the evidence currently slightly favours the bulls based on strong derivatives and short-term price momentum. However, a breakdown below the 50-day moving average or an RSI-driven pullback would quickly flip the outlook in favour of the bears.

Anomalies detected

All signals →
rareVolume in the bottom 1% of its history2h ago

Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.7th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Neutral Up 19.6% over 30 days; 84% below the running high; Realised volatility 62%

What ADA is moving with

Full market structure →
Bitcoin30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Crude oil30d -0.27 · 90d -0.05 · Weak inverse relationship
Gold30d 0.38 · 90d 0.33 · Weak positive relationship
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d 0.23 · 90d 0.30 · Weak positive relationship
Silver30d 0.39 · 90d 0.28 · Weak positive relationship
Nasdaq 10030d 0.26 · 90d 0.40 · Weak positive relationship
S&P 50030d 0.36 · 90d 0.38 · Weak positive relationship
US Dollar Index30d -0.14 · 90d -0.24 · Moving independently

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change -74.8%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
76.6
Overbought territory
MACD hist
SMA 50
$0.167144
SMA 200
$0.234362
Volatility 30d
59%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
2.94M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.0753
Commits (30d)
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
37.35B
Supply issued
--
Max 45B

Score over time

Related news

No headlines tied to Cardano yet.

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API