Dogecoin
DOGELast scan 1h ago
Slightly bearish (53% confidence)
Why this score
Dogecoin’s Confidence Score dropped from 53.6 to 46.9 out of 100, primarily because its long-term trend structure remains broken—with the price sitting 5.9% below its 50-day moving average—and development activity has stalled at a sub-score of 0. While a high derivatives sub-score of 84 and a positive MACD momentum signal offer some short-term relief, the coin is still carrying risk from an 85% drawdown off its five-year high and regulatory headwinds like the delayed US Senate CLARITY Act vote. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether DOGE can reclaim its 50-day moving average to begin repairing its broader market trend.
- MACD above signalHistogram 0.00 — short-term trend is up.
- Below 50-day averagePrice is -5.9% below the 50-day moving average.
- Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
- Issue backlog growing2 issues closed against 10 opened in 30 days.
- Deep drawdownTrading 85% below its 5-year high.
Score breakdown
Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.
What changed since the last scan
1h agoDogecoin's confidence score dropped from 53.6 to 46.9 following a complete breakdown in its Tokenomics score from 100 to 0, alongside smaller pullbacks in Derivatives positioning (90 to 84) and Development (3 to 0). This shift matters because it signals extreme market stagnation, reinforced by new anomaly flags placing DOGE's trading volume in the bottom 1% of its historical record and volatility near a multi-year low. Meanwhile, broader regulatory clarity remains paused as the US Senate confirmed it will delay its vote on the Clarity Act until after the August recess.
- • Development down 2.6 points (3 → 0)
- • Derivatives positioning down 5.8 points (90 → 84)
- • Tokenomics down 100.0 points (100 → 0)
AI confidence meter
- Data quality
- Fair
- Category coverage
- 88%
- Conflicting signals
- 1
- Missing data
- Social sentiment
- • 7 of 8 score categories had data this scan
- • 3 of 5 data feeds responded
- • 1 signal contradict the overall read
- • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction
Bull case vs bear case
Both cases built from the same evidenceBull case
Dogecoin displays brief upward short-term momentum as its MACD sits above the signal line with a 0.00 histogram, alongside a strong derivatives sub-score of 84. Furthermore, with volatility near a multi-year low and a risk sub-score of 70, the asset demonstrates localized stability despite broader weakness.
Bear case
The asset's long-term structure is severely damaged, trading -5.9% below its 50-day moving average, below its 200-day average, and 85% below its 5-year high. Fundamental health is compromised by zero development and tokenomics sub-scores, a growing backlog of 10 opened versus 2 closed issues over 30 days, and trading volume sitting in the bottom 1% of its history.
Balanced read: The evidence currently favours the bear case given the overall confidence score of 46.9/100 and widespread long-term technical and development degradation. A reversal above the 50-day moving average paired with a recovery from bottom 1% trading volumes would be needed to shift favor back to the bulls.
Anomalies detected
All signals →30-day annualised volatility of 35% sits at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
30-day annualised volatility of 35% sits at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
Today's traded volume ranks at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Thin participation means prices move on very little conviction.
30-day annualised volatility of 35% sits at the 0.0th percentile of the last 2.4 years. Compressed volatility tends to resolve into a larger move, but it does not say which direction.
Market mood timeline
Last 45 days · from momentum and volatilityToday: Fear — Down 4.4% over 30 days; 85% below the running high; Realised volatility 37%
What DOGE is moving with
Full market structure →Price history
Daily closes · CoinbaseTechnical indicators
Network & development
Score over time
Related news
No headlines tied to Dogecoin yet.
Missing from this report
- Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
- Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
- Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
- ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
- Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API