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Ethereum

ETH
$1,900.1624h -0.40% · 7d -4.49% · 30d -3.38%

Last scan 1h ago

52Confidence+2.4

Slightly bullish (52% confidence)

Why this score

Ethereum’s Confidence Score rose slightly to 52.2 out of 100 (up from 49.8), driven by a perfect 100 derivatives sub-score and aggressive buying where 71% of recent taker volume hit the ask. However, the coin still faces heavy technical resistance with a low momentum score of 38, a negative MACD histogram of -10.23, and a price sitting 5.5% below its 50-day moving average. Risk remains significant as ETH trades in a deep 68% drawdown from its 5-year high alongside weak development activity, which scored just 37. The single biggest thing to watch next is whether buyers can sustain this volume to reclaim the 50-day moving average and reverse the downward short-term trend.

Bullish
  • Aggressive buying71% of recent taker volume hit the ask.
Bearish
  • MACD below signalHistogram -10.23 — short-term trend is down.
  • Below 50-day averagePrice is -5.5% below the 50-day moving average.
  • Below 200-day averageLong-term trend structure is broken.
  • Issue backlog growing7 issues closed against 12 opened in 30 days.
Risks
  • Deep drawdownTrading 68% below its 5-year high.

Score breakdown

Momentum3472%38
Risk (inverted)1667%74
Network usagen/a
Development1111%37
News sentiment2083%54
Social sentiment833%est37
Derivatives positioning833%est100
Tokenomicsn/a

Categories marked est fall back to free public data (exchange order books, global news tone) when a paid feed is off, and count at 60% weight. Only categories with no usable data at all score n/a, and their weight is spread across the rest.

What changed since the last scan

1h ago

Since the previous scan, Ethereum's confidence score edged up from 49.8 to 52.2, even as its news sentiment score decreased by 2.0 points from 56 to 54. The slight dip in news sentiment follows regulatory delays, notably headlines indicating the U.S. Senate will not vote on the crypto Clarity Act before its summer break. With no new anomaly flags detected and only modest numerical moves across the board, Ethereum's dashboard metrics reflect a relatively stable day-over-day shift.

  • News sentiment down 2.0 points (56 → 54)

AI confidence meter

Neutral66%
Data quality
Fair
Category coverage
75%
Conflicting signals
1
Missing data
Network usage, Tokenomics
  • 6 of 8 score categories had data this scan
  • 5 of 5 data feeds responded
  • 1 signal contradict the overall read
  • Score sits close to neutral, so the read is weak by construction

Bull case vs bear case

Both cases built from the same evidence

Bull case

Ethereum demonstrates strong spot demand, with aggressive buyers driving 71% of recent taker volume to hit the ask despite overall market headwinds. The asset also boasts a maximum derivatives sub-score of 100 and a high risk sub-score of 74. This aggressive taker activity indicates strong high-conviction accumulation occurring under the surface.

Bear case

ETH faces heavy technical breakdown, trading 5.5% below its 50-day moving average, below its 200-day moving average, and in a deep 68% drawdown from its 5-year high. Momentum and development sub-scores remain depressed at 38 and 37 respectively, backed by a negative MACD histogram of -10.23 and a growing GitHub issue backlog with 12 issues opened against 7 closed over 30 days.

Balanced read: Despite a neutral overall confidence score of 52.2/100, the evidence currently favors the bear case due to broken long-term moving averages, poor momentum (38), and a negative MACD histogram (-10.23). A sustained reclaim of the 50-day moving average alongside expanding development activity would be required to flip the bias toward the bulls.

Market mood timeline

Last 45 days · from momentum and volatility
PanicFearNeutralOptimisticEuphoria

Today: Fear Down 3.4% over 30 days; 68% below the running high; Realised volatility 36%

What ETH is moving with

Full market structure →
Crude oil30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Gold30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Nvidia (AI proxy)30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Silver30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
Nasdaq 10030d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
S&P 50030d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data
US Dollar Index30d · 90d · Not enough overlapping data

Price history

Daily closes · Coinbase
Range change +19.6%

Technical indicators

RSI (14)
33.4
Neutral range
MACD hist
SMA 50
$1,629.25
SMA 200
$1,797.20
Volatility 30d
32%
ATR 14
Bollinger %B
Dist. from ATH
—%
Trend
--

Network & development

Transactions (24h)
2.94M
vs 30d average
—%
Hash rate trend
—%
Avg fee
0.0759
Commits (30d)
77
GitHub
Contributors
Stars
Circulating supply
120.68M
Supply issued
--
No hard cap

Score over time

Missing from this report

  • Whale wallet movements — needs Arkham / Nansen / Whale Alert API key
  • Exchange inflows & outflows — needs Glassnode or CryptoQuant API key
  • Order-book depth & spreads — needs Exchange L2 market-data feed
  • ETF & institutional flows — needs Farside / SoSoValue data feed
  • Staking yield & % staked — needs Staking Rewards or beacon-chain API